Weather and the City: Machine Learning for Predicting and Attributing Fine Scale Air Quality to Meteorological and Urban Determinants.

Urban air quality persists as a global concern, with critical health implications. This study employs a combination of machine learning (gradient boosting regression, GBR) and spatial analysis to better understand the key drivers behind air pollution and its prediction and mitigation strategies. Focusing on New York City as a representative urban area, we investigate the interplay between urban characteristics and weather factors, showing that urban features, including traffic-related parameters and urban morphology, emerge as crucial predictors for pollutants closely associated with vehicular emissions, such as elemental carbon (EC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Conversely, pollutants with secondary formation pathways (e.g., PM2.5) or stemming from nontraffic sources (e.g., sulfur dioxide, SO2) are predominantly influenced by meteorological conditions, particularly wind speed and maximum daily temperature. Urban characteristics are shown to act over spatial scales of 500 × 500 m2, which is thus the footprint needed to effectively capture the impact of urban form, fabric, and function. Our spatial predictive model, needing only meteorological and urban inputs, achieves promising results with mean absolute errors ranging from 8 to 32% when using full-year data. Our approach also yields good performance when applied to the temporal mapping of spatial pollutant variability. Our findings highlight the interacting roles of urban characteristics and weather conditions and can inform urban planning, design, and policy.

Minimizing the impacts of the ammonia economy on the nitrogen cycle and climate.

Ammonia (NH3) is an attractive low-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier. However, losses and inefficiencies across the value chain could result in reactive nitrogen emissions (NH3, NOx, and N2O), negatively impacting air quality, the environment, human health, and climate. A relatively robust ammonia economy (30 EJ/y) could perturb the global nitrogen cycle by up to 65 Mt/y with a 5% nitrogen loss rate, equivalent to 50% of the current global perturbation caused by fertilizers. Moreover, the emission rate of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting molecule, determines whether ammonia combustion has a greenhouse footprint comparable to renewable energy sources or higher than coal (100 to 1,400 gCO2e/kWh). The success of the ammonia economy hence hinges on adopting optimal practices and technologies that minimize reactive nitrogen emissions. We discuss how this constraint should be included in the ongoing broad engineering research to reduce environmental concerns and prevent the lock-in of high-leakage practices.

Underestimation of Sector-Wide Methane Emissions from United States Wastewater Treatment.

An increasing percentage of US waste methane (CH4) emissions come from wastewater treatment (10% in 1990 to 14% in 2019), although there are limited measurements across the sector, leading to large uncertainties in current inventories. We conducted the largest study of CH4 emissions from US wastewater treatment, measuring 63 plants with average daily flows ranging from 4.2 × 10-4 to 8.5 m3 s-1 (<0.1 to 193 MGD), totaling 2% of the 62.5 billion gallons treated, nationally. We employed Bayesian inference to quantify facility-integrated emission rates with a mobile laboratory approach (1165 cross-plume transects). The median plant-averaged emission rate was 1.1 g CH4 s-1 (0.1-21.6 g CH4 s-1; 10th/90th percentiles; mean 7.9 g CH4 s-1), and the median emission factor was 3.4 × 10-2 g CH4 (g influent 5 day biochemical oxygen demand; BOD5)-1 [0.6-9.9 × 10-2 g CH4 (g BOD5)-1; 10th/90th percentiles; mean 5.7 × 10-2 g CH4 (g BOD5)-1]. Using a Monte Carlo-based scaling of measured emission factors, emissions from US centrally treated domestic wastewater are 1.9 (95% CI: 1.5-2.4) times greater than the current US EPA inventory (bias of 5.4 MMT CO2-eq). With increasing urbanization and centralized treatment, efforts to identify and mitigate CH4 emissions are needed.

Methane Emissions from Municipal Wastewater Collection and Treatment Systems.

Municipal wastewater collection and treatment systems are critical infrastructures, and they are also identified as major sources of anthropogenic CH4 emissions that contribute to climate change. The actual CH4 emissions at the plant- or regional level vary greatly due to site-specific conditions as well as high seasonal and diurnal variations. Here, we conducted the first quantitative analysis of CH4 emissions from different types of sewers and water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs). We examined variations in CH4 emissions associated with methods applied in different monitoring campaigns, and identified main CH4 sources and sinks to facilitate carbon emission reduction efforts in the wastewater sector. We found plant-wide CH4 emissions vary by orders of magnitude, from 0.01 to 110 g CH4/m3 with high emissions associated with plants equipped with anaerobic digestion or stabilization ponds. Rising mains show higher dissolved CH4 concentrations than gravity sewers when transporting similar raw sewage under similar environmental conditions, but the latter dominates most collection systems around the world. Using the updated data sets, we estimated annual CH4 emission from the U.S. centralized, municipal wastewater treatment to be approximately 10.9 ± 7.0 MMT CO2-eq/year, which is about twice as the IPCC (2019) Tier 2 estimates (4.3-6.1 MMT CO2-eq/year). Given CH4 emission control will play a crucial role in achieving net zero carbon goals by the midcentury, more studies are needed to profile and mitigate CH4 emissions from the wastewater sector.

A new open-path eddy covariance method for nitrous oxide and other trace gases that minimizes temperature corrections.

Low-power, open-path gas sensors enable eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements in remote areas without line power. However, open-path flux measurements are sensitive to fluctuations in air temperature, pressure, and humidity. Laser-based, open-path sensors with the needed sensitivity for trace gases like methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide (N2 O) are impacted by additional spectroscopic effects. Corrections for these effects, especially those related to temperature fluctuations, often exceed the flux of gases, leading to large uncertainties in the associated fluxes. For example, the density and spectroscopic corrections arising from temperature fluctuations can be one or two orders of magnitude greater than background N2 O fluxes. Consequently, measuring background fluxes with laser-based, open-path sensors is extremely challenging, particularly for N2 O and gases with similar high-precision requirements. We demonstrate a new laser-based, open-path N2 O sensor and a general approach applicable to other gases that minimizes temperature-related corrections for EC flux measurements. The method identifies absorption lines with spectroscopic effects in the opposite direction of density effects from temperature and, thus, density and spectroscopic effects nearly cancel one another. The new open-path N2 O sensor was tested at a corn (Zea mays L.) field in Southwestern Michigan, United States. The sensor had an optimal precision of 0.1 ppbv at 10 Hz and power consumption of 50 W. Field trials showed that temperature-related corrections were 6% of density corrections, reducing EC random errors by 20-fold compared to previously examined lines. Measured open-path N2 O EC fluxes showed excellent agreement with those made with static chambers (m = 1.0 ± 0.3; r2  = .96). More generally, we identified absorption lines for CO2 and CH4  flux measurements that can reduce the temperature-related corrections by 10-100 times compared to existing open-path sensors. The proposed method provides a new direction for future open-path sensors, facilitating the expansion of accurate EC flux measurements.

Satellite Monitoring for Air Quality and Health.

Data from satellite instruments provide estimates of gas and particle levels relevant to human health, even pollutants invisible to the human eye. However, the successful interpretation of satellite data requires an understanding of how satellites relate to other data sources, as well as factors affecting their application to health challenges. Drawing from the expertise and experience of the 2016-2020 NASA HAQAST (Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team), we present a review of satellite data for air quality and health applications. We include a discussion of satellite data for epidemiological studies and health impact assessments, as well as the use of satellite data to evaluate air quality trends, support air quality regulation, characterize smoke from wildfires, and quantify emission sources. The primary advantage of satellite data compared to in situ measurements, e.g., from air quality monitoring stations, is their spatial coverage. Satellite data can reveal where pollution levels are highest around the world, how levels have changed over daily to decadal periods, and where pollutants are transported from urban to global scales. To date, air quality and health applications have primarily utilized satellite observations and satellite-derived products relevant to near-surface particulate matter <2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Health and air quality communities have grown increasingly engaged in the use of satellite data, and this trend is expected to continue. From health researchers to air quality managers, and from global applications to community impacts, satellite data are transforming the way air pollution exposure is evaluated.

Fugitive methane detection using open-path stand-off chirped laser dispersion spectroscopy.

We report an open-path chirped laser dispersion spectrometer capable of detecting the atmospheric methane concentration above the background using both specular and diffusive reflective surfaces via two distinct operation modes in a stand-off detection configuration. The system is integrated with simultaneous ranging functionality, which enables average concentration measurements for varying optical pathlengths. The system was first tested for accuracy and characterized to achieve sensitivity of 2.9ppm-m/Hz1/2 and pathlength precision of 0.2m/Hz1/2 with a controlled release of methane outside the laboratory. The instrument was subsequently field-deployed in the proximity of a natural gas compressor station for fugitive methane detection. The instrument successfully detected methane plumes and narrowed down the location of the plume through multi-path measurement. The field measurements were verified by a co-located reference mobile methane sensor.

Ammonia Dry Deposition in an Alpine Ecosystem Traced to Agricultural Emission Hotpots.

Elevated reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition is a concern for alpine ecosystems, and dry NH3 deposition is a key contributor. Understanding how emission hotspots impact downwind ecosystems through dry NH3 deposition provides opportunities for effective mitigation. However, direct NH3 flux measurements with sufficient temporal resolution to quantify such events are rare. Here, we measured NH3 fluxes at Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) during two summers and analyzed transport events from upwind agricultural and urban sources in northeastern Colorado. We deployed open-path NH3 sensors on a mobile laboratory and an eddy covariance tower to measure NH3 concentrations and fluxes. Our spatial sampling illustrated an upslope event that transported NH3 emissions from the hotspot to RMNP. Observed NH3 deposition was significantly higher when backtrajectories passed through only the agricultural region (7.9 ng m-2 s-1) versus only the urban area (1.0 ng m-2 s-1) and both urban and agricultural areas (2.7 ng m-2 s-1). Cumulative NH3 fluxes were calculated using observed, bidirectional modeled, and gap-filled fluxes. More than 40% of the total dry NH3 deposition occurred when air masses were traced back to agricultural source regions. More generally, we identified that 10 (25) more national parks in the U.S. are within 100 (200) km of an NH3 hotspot, and more observations are needed to quantify the impacts of these hotspots on dry NH3 deposition in these regions.

Monthly Patterns of Ammonia Over the Contiguous United States at 2-km Resolution.

Monthly, high-resolution (∼2 km) ammonia (NH3) column maps from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) were developed across the contiguous United States and adjacent areas. Ammonia hotspots (95th percentile of the column distribution) were highly localized with a characteristic length scale of 12 km and median area of 152 km2. Five seasonality clusters were identified with k-means++ clustering. The Midwest and eastern United States had a broad, spring maximum of NH3 (67% of hotspots in this cluster). The western United States, in contrast, showed a narrower midsummer peak (32% of hotspots). IASI spatiotemporal clustering was consistent with those from the Ammonia Monitoring Network. CMAQ and GFDL-AM3 modeled NH3 columns have some success replicating the seasonal patterns but did not capture the regional differences. The high spatial-resolution monthly NH3 maps serve as a constraint for model simulations and as a guide for the placement of future, ground-based network sites.

Methane detection using an interband-cascade LED coupled to a hollow-core fiber.

Midwave infrared interband-cascade light-emitting devices (ICLEDs) have the potential to improve the selectivity, stability, and sensitivity of low-cost gas sensors. We demonstrate a broadband direct absorption CH4 sensor with an ICLED coupled to a plastic hollow-core fiber (1 m length, 1500 µm inner diameter). The sensor achieves a 1σ noise equivalent absorption of approximately 0.2 ppmv CH4 at 1 Hz, while operating at a low drive power of 0.5 mW. A low-cost sub-ppmv CH4 sensor would make monitoring emissions more affordable and more accessible for many relevant industries, such as the petroleum, agriculture, and waste industries.

Methane emissions from natural gas vehicles in China.

Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) have been promoted in China to mitigate air pollution, yet our measurements and analyses show that NGV growth in China may have significant negative impacts on climate change. We conducted real-world vehicle emission measurements in China and found high methane emissions from heavy-duty NGVs (90% higher than current emission limits). These emissions have been ignored in previous emission estimates, leading to biased results. Applying our observations to life-cycle analyses, we found that switching to NGVs from conventional vehicles in China has led to a net increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since 2000. With scenario analyses, we also show that the next decade will be critical for China to reverse the trend with the upcoming China VI standard for heavy-duty vehicles. Implementing and enforcing the China VI standard is challenging, and the method demonstrated here can provide critical information regarding the fleet-level CH4 emissions from NGVs.

Variability of Ammonia and Methane Emissions from Animal Feeding Operations in Northeastern Colorado.

Concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) are major emitters of both ammonia (NH3) and methane (CH4). However, current emission inventories have limited temporal resolution and use data derived from a small subset of farms. To this end, we deployed three mobile laboratories during the DISCOVER-AQ campaign in summer 2014 with a focus on northeastern Colorado. Observations of NH3 and CH4 plumes downwind of 43 CAFOs were used to investigate the diurnal and site-to-site variability of emissions with an inverse area source plume modeling approach. Ammonia emissions scaled to all permitted animals in Weld, Morgan, and Larimer counties were estimated at 1.9 Gg month-1, 50% greater than the U.S. NEI 2014 and 360% greater than EDGAR for the month of August. Methane emissions were likewise estimated at 10.6 Gg month-1, consistent with the U.S. GHGI but 99% greater than EDGAR. Significant differences between individual CAFOs with repeat observations were also observed for both CH4 and NH3 emissions. The large subfarm, site-to-site, and diurnal variabilities observed show the importance of measurements taken across these scales in order to derive representative emission factors.

Air quality, nitrogen use efficiency and food security in China are improved by cost-effective agricultural nitrogen management.

China's gains in food production over the past four decades have been associated with substantial agricultural nitrogen losses, which contribute to air and water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and damage to human health. Here, we explore the potential to improve agricultural production practices that simultaneously increase yields while addressing these environmental challenges. We link agronomic research with air quality modelling for an integrated assessment of four improved nitrogen management strategies: improved farm management practices with nitrogen use reductions; machine deep placement of fertilizer; enhanced-efficiency fertilizer use; and improved manure management. We find that simultaneous implementation of the four strategies provides the largest benefits, which include: reductions in PM2.5 concentrations and associated premature deaths; increases in grain yields and grain nitrogen use efficiency; reductions in NO3- leaching and runoff and greenhouse gas emissions. Total benefits of US$30 billion per year exceed the US$18 billion per year in costs. Our findings indicate that policies that improve farmers' agricultural nitrogen management in China will improve both food security and public health while addressing multiple environmental challenges. Similar increases in attention on agricultural policy around the world are likely to provide large benefits in food security, environmental integrity and public health.

Importance of Superemitter Natural Gas Well Pads in the Marcellus Shale.

A large-scale study of methane emissions from well pads was conducted in the Marcellus shale (Pennsylvania), the largest producing natural gas shale play in the United States, to better identify the prevalence and characteristics of superemitters. Roughly 2100 measurements were taken from 673 unique unconventional well pads corresponding to ∼18% of the total population of active sites and ∼32% of the total statewide unconventional natural gas production. A log-normal distribution with a geometric mean of 2.0 kg h-1 and arithmetic mean of 5.5 kg h-1 was observed, which agrees with other independent observations in this region. The geometric standard deviation (4.4 kg h-1) compared well to other studies in the region, but the top 10% of emitters observed in this study contributed 77% of the total emissions, indicating an extremely skewed distribution. The integrated proportional loss of this representative sample was equal to 0.53% with a 95% confidence interval of 0.45-0.64% of the total production of the sites, which is greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency inventory estimate (0.29%), but in the lower range of other mobile observations (0.09-3.3%). These results emphasize the need for a sufficiently large sample size when characterizing emissions distributions that contain superemitters.

Modeling NH4NO3 Over the San Joaquin Valley During the 2013 DISCOVER-AQ Campaign.

The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California experiences high concentrations of particulate matter NH4NO3 during episodes of meteorological stagnation in winter. A rich data set of observations related to NH4NO3 formation was acquired during multiple periods of elevated NH4NO3 during the Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) field campaign in SJV in January and February 2013. Here NH4NO3 is simulated during the SJV DISCOVER-AQ study period with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, diagnostic model evaluation is performed using the DISCOVER-AQ data set, and integrated reaction rate analysis is used to quantify HNO3 production rates. Simulated NO3- generally agrees well with routine monitoring of 24-hr average NO3-, but comparisons with hourly average NO3- measurements in Fresno revealed differences at higher time resolution. Predictions of gas-particle partitioning of total nitrate (HNO3 + NO3-) and NHx (NH3 + NH4+) generally agree well with measurements in Fresno, although partitioning of total nitrate to HNO3 is sometimes overestimated at low relative humidity in afternoon. Gas-particle partitioning results indicate that NH4NO3 formation is limited by HNO3 availability in both the model and ambient. NH3 mixing ratios are underestimated, particularly in areas with large agricultural activity, and additional work on the spatial allocation of NH3 emissions is warranted. During a period of elevated NH4NO3, the model predicted that the OH + NO2 pathway contributed 46% to total HNO3production in SJV and the N2O5 heterogeneous hydrolysis pathway contributed 54%. The relative importance of the OH + NO2 pathway for HNO3 production is predicted to increase as NOx emissions decrease.

Vehicle Emissions as an Important Urban Ammonia Source in the United States and China.

Ammoniated aerosols are important for urban air quality, but emissions of the key precursor NH3 are not well quantified. Mobile laboratory observations are used to characterize fleet-integrated NH3 emissions in six cities in the U.S. and China. Vehicle NH3:CO2 emission ratios in the U.S. are similar between cities (0.33-0.40 ppbv/ppmv, 15% uncertainty) despite differences in fleet composition, climate, and fuel composition. While Beijing, China has a comparable emission ratio (0.36 ppbv/ppmv) to the U.S. cities, less developed Chinese cities show higher emission ratios (0.44 and 0.55 ppbv/ppmv). If the vehicle CO2 inventories are accurate, NH3 emissions from U.S. vehicles (0.26 ± 0.07 Tg/yr) are more than twice those of the National Emission Inventory (0.12 Tg/yr), while Chinese NH3 vehicle emissions (0.09 ± 0.02 Tg/yr) are similar to a bottom-up inventory. Vehicle NH3 emissions are greater than agricultural emissions in counties containing near half of the U.S. population and require reconsideration in urban air quality models due to their colocation with other aerosol precursors and the uncertainties regarding NH3 losses from upwind agricultural sources. Ammonia emissions in developing cities are especially important because of their high emission ratios and rapid motorizations.

Characterization of Ammonia, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in Northeastern Colorado.

Atmospheric emissions from animal husbandry are important to both air quality and climate, but are hard to characterize and quantify as they differ significantly due to management practices and livestock type, and they can vary substantially throughout diurnal and seasonal cycles. Using a new mobile laboratory, ammonia (NH3), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other trace gas emissions were measured from four concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) in northeastern Colorado. Two dairies, a beef cattle feedlot, and a sheep feedlot were chosen for repeated diurnal and seasonal measurements. A consistent diurnal pattern in the NH3 to CH4 enhancement ratio is clearly observed, with midday enhancement ratios approximately four times greater than nighttime values. This diurnal pattern is similar, with slight variations in magnitude, at the four CAFOs and across seasons. The average NH3 to CH4 enhancement ratio from all seasons and CAFOs studied is 0.17 (+0.13/-0.08) mol/mol, in agreement with statewide inventory averages and previous literature. Enhancement ratios for NH3 to N2O and N2O to CH4 are also reported. The enhancement ratios can be used as a source signature to distinguish feedlot emissions from other NH3 and CH4 sources, such as fertilizer application and fossil fuel development, and the large diurnal variability is important for refining inventories, models, and emission estimates.

Active and widespread halogen chemistry in the tropical and subtropical free troposphere.

Halogens in the troposphere are increasingly recognized as playing an important role for atmospheric chemistry, and possibly climate. Bromine and iodine react catalytically to destroy ozone (O3), oxidize mercury, and modify oxidative capacity that is relevant for the lifetime of greenhouse gases. Most of the tropospheric O3 and methane (CH4) loss occurs at tropical latitudes. Here we report simultaneous measurements of vertical profiles of bromine oxide (BrO) and iodine oxide (IO) in the tropical and subtropical free troposphere (10 °N to 40 °S), and show that these halogens are responsible for 34% of the column-integrated loss of tropospheric O3. The observed BrO concentrations increase strongly with altitude (∼ 3.4 pptv at 13.5 km), and are 2-4 times higher than predicted in the tropical free troposphere. BrO resembles model predictions more closely in stratospheric air. The largest model low bias is observed in the lower tropical transition layer (TTL) over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and may reflect a missing inorganic bromine source supplying an additional 2.5-6.4 pptv total inorganic bromine (Bry), or model overestimated Bry wet scavenging. Our results highlight the importance of heterogeneous chemistry on ice clouds, and imply an additional Bry source from the debromination of sea salt residue in the lower TTL. The observed levels of bromine oxidize mercury up to 3.5 times faster than models predict, possibly increasing mercury deposition to the ocean. The halogen-catalyzed loss of tropospheric O3 needs to be considered when estimating past and future ozone radiative effects.

Near-Field Characterization of Methane Emission Variability from a Compressor Station Using a Model Aircraft.

A model aircraft equipped with a custom laser-based, open-path methane sensor was deployed around a natural gas compressor station to quantify the methane leak rate and its variability at a compressor station in the Barnett Shale. The open-path, laser-based sensor provides fast (10 Hz) and precise (0.1 ppmv) measurements of methane in a compact package while the remote control aircraft provides nimble and safe operation around a local source. Emission rates were measured from 22 flights over a one-week period. Mean emission rates of 14 ± 8 g CH4 s(-1) (7.4 ± 4.2 g CH4 s(-1) median) from the station were observed or approximately 0.02% of the station throughput. Significant variability in emission rates (0.3-73 g CH4 s(-1) range) was observed on time scales of hours to days, and plumes showed high spatial variability in the horizontal and vertical dimensions. Given the high spatiotemporal variability of emissions, individual measurements taken over short durations and from ground-based platforms should be used with caution when examining compressor station emissions. More generally, our results demonstrate the unique advantages and challenges of platforms like small unmanned aerial vehicles for quantifying local emission sources to the atmosphere.